Start-up rates are often treated as a barometer of the health of the economy. However, the latest Global Entrepreneurship Monitor(GEM) report ‘From Uncertainty To Opportunity’ sheds new light on this statistic. Covering 53 countries accounting for more than half of global GDP, the document suggests that the era of fascination with the sheer number of startups is coming to an end. Today, the key challenge is no longer how many companies are created, but how many of them can survive the ‘valley of death’ and adopt artificial intelligence.
Polish anomaly: Maturity instead of youth
The situation in Poland looks paradoxical compared to the world. While in countries such as Canada or Chile, one in four adults runs a young company, in Poland the rate is three times lower. As recently as 15 years ago, there were two novices for every one mature business owner. Today, these proportions have radically reversed: for every young company, there are four established businesses.
However, this state of affairs is not just a warning signal. Experts from the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development (PARP) point to a complex structural background. The Polish economy has advanced and a saturated labour market with rising wages has become a safe alternative to risky self-employment. At the same time, the entry threshold has increased dramatically. Today’s market requires not only an idea, but massive investment in innovation and technology, which naturally rewards players already embedded in the system.
Two gaps: Survival and AI
The GEM report diagnoses two critical phenomena that could determine the balance of power in the global economy over the next decade: the survival gap and the AI readiness gap.
The first is due to systemic barriers. Although the world is being flooded by a wave of new initiatives, too few of them develop into stable organisations. It is not only the lack of funding that is to blame, but above all the deficiencies in business education. Companies often ‘choke’ in the early growth stage, unable to scale operations.
The second gap – technological – is creating a two-speed economy. Interestingly, optimism about AI is not coming from Europe. The countries where one in two entrepreneurs recognise AI as the key to the future lie outside the Old Continent. In Europe, the rate is much lower, which may herald a loss of competitiveness to markets more aggressively adopting new tools. As GEM’s Aileen Ionescu-Somers notes, the ability to use AI is now the foundation of productivity, not a technological add-on.
Value capital
Despite technological challenges, Poland excels in the area of values. More than 90% of young entrepreneurs on the Vistula include social and environmental impact in their business decisions, which is above the global average. Women’s activity also remains stable, almost matching that of men in Poland, which is one of the strongest foundations of the local ecosystem.
