Cisco Systems is not slowing down in its consolidation of the cyber security market. According to reports from Ctech by Calcalist, the tech giant is in advanced talks to acquire startup Axonius. An offer of around $2 billion is said to be on the table. Although officially Axonius denies the reports, claiming that it is solely focused on “customers and meeting targets”, market analysts read this as a classic negotiation game. Indeed, in the background of the transaction, there is a clear trend of unicorn valuation correction.
For Cisco, which is still putting together its portfolio after giant acquisitions (including the acquisition of Splunk), Axonius would be a strategic piece of the puzzle. The New York-based startup, founded in 2017, is a leader in the category of cyber asset attack surface management (CAASM). In short: it solves one of IT’s oldest problems – inventory. Unlike traditional tools, the Axonius platform does not require agents to be installed. Instead, it connects to hundreds of existing data sources – from the cloud to vulnerability scanners – to create a single, consistent view of the infrastructure. This allows companies to detect ‘invisible risks’, i.e. forgotten devices or unmanaged accounts that often become gateways for hackers.
The most interesting strand of this story, however, is the financial maths. In 2022, after a $200 million investment round, Axonius was valued at $2.6 billion. A possible sale for 2 billion would therefore mean a so-called down exit – an exit below the peak valuation. Such a scenario is becoming the new normal for many technology companies, which have to choose between a difficult IPO or a safe harbour alongside a giant.
For Cisco, this price may seem promotional, especially given that Axonius’ direct competitor Armis is priced much higher. If the deal goes through, it would signal Cisco’s intention to dominate the asset visibility niche before that market has fully matured. For now, however, we are left to watch whether Axonius’ denials are the last line of defence for independence or just a prelude to an acquisition announcement.
