The government is working on a new version of the windfall tax on fuel companies. According to reports, two options are being considered: imposing the levy on fuel producers and importers, or extending it to gas producers as well. In the second scenario, budget revenue could rise from around PLN 4 billion to PLN 8–10 billion.
This is the latest development in the dispute over the financing of energy price caps. The bill passed on 3 July provided for a 60 per cent tax on profits exceeding the reference margin and was intended to cover the period from March to December 2026. However, President Karol Nawrocki referred it to the Constitutional Tribunal on 24 July, so the provisions did not come into force.
Pressure on the government is mounting due to the situation on the commodities market. On 11 August, Brent crude was trading at around $89 per barrel, and the market remains sensitive to news concerning the Strait of Hormuz and US–Iran relations. The previous ‘Lower Fuel Prices’ programme, which included, amongst other things, a reduced VAT rate, cost the budget around PLN 4.7 billion and came to an end at the end of June.
Extending the tax to gas would increase government revenue and could create a financial buffer in the event that the relief measures are reinstated. At the same time, it would place a greater burden on the gas sector, including Orlen. This is significant because the company is implementing the largest investment programme in its history, worth PLN 380 billion over a decade, covering, amongst other things, production, LNG and the energy transition.
The structure of the tax will therefore be crucial for the market. A levy on genuinely extraordinary margins could limit the cost of the crisis to the budget, but a mechanism that is too broad could reduce the funds available for new gas sources, LNG infrastructure and energy investments.
