Washington is preparing to fundamentally redefine the rules of the global artificial intelligence arms race. According to documents, Donald Trump’ s administration is considering a new restrictive export framework for the most advanced AI systems. Instead of the previous policy based primarily on national security, the new model shifts the centre of gravity towards tough business negotiations and a requirement for direct investment within the US.
The proposed legislation stipulates that access to large batches of processors – in excess of 200,000 units – will be conditional not only on security guarantees, but primarily on capital commitment to US infrastructure. This is a radical departure from the previous administration’s approach, which rewarded close allies with broad exemptions from export controls. The current vision is more transactional: you want to build AI power at home, you must first help build it in America.
The control mechanism is to be multi-level and extremely precise. The documents suggest that even relatively small installations of less than a thousand chips may require special licences. Crucially, the burden of oversight is to fall directly on manufacturers such as Nvidia and AMD. These companies would be required to monitor how the hardware is used, and recipients would have to implement software to prevent processors from combining into massive computing clusters without Washington’s explicit approval.
The model for the new regulations is to be the agreements recently concluded with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Department of Commerce, cutting out the – what it called – ‘onerous’ rules of its predecessors, is betting on a model in which technology transfer is a reward for economic loyalty. For global technology players, this means they need to review their data centre location strategies.
While the new rules do not directly hit fully embargoed countries like Russia, they cast a shadow over relations with existing partners in Europe and Asia. Washington is gaining powerful leverage: AI chips are becoming the most important currency in economic diplomacy. Companies hoping to maintain their growth momentum must now factor in the cost of investing in the US, which will become a kind of ‘ticket of entry’ to the world’s most advanced silicon architecture.
