The global semiconductor industry enters 2026 under the shadow of a structural imbalance that is redefining the economics of the consumer electronics market. What for tech giants and cloud operators is the essential fuel of the artificial intelligence revolution is becoming a major supply chain threat for the consumer sector. The memory crisis that analysts have been warning about for months has ceased to be a mere prediction and has become a reality that will directly hit end-customer wallets and reseller margins.
At the heart of the problem is a radical reallocation of production capacity. According to IDC data, manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron have given absolute priority to high-margin specialised memory – HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and server RDIMM modules. This is a direct response to the insatiable appetite of data centres training language models. A side effect of this strategy is a drastic reduction in production lines for conventional DRAM and NAND dice. Supply growth in this segment is estimated to be only 16-17 per cent this year, well below the historical standards needed to maintain price stability.
This drain on resources will be felt most acutely by mid-range smartphone manufacturers such as Xiaomi, Realme and OPPO, which have built their position on aggressive pricing. They now face a choice between drastically slashing margins or raising retail prices, which could result in a projected drop in global handset shipments of up to 5.2 per cent. Even players with the strongest bargaining position, such as Apple and Samsung, despite having long-term contracts, are likely to hold off on their planned RAM increases in their flagship models. This marks the end of a decade-long era in which consumers received better and better specifications while prices remained stable.
The PC market is equally tight. The shortage of components coincides unfortunate with the Windows fleet replacement cycle and the market push towards ‘AI-ready’ PCs. PC market leaders, including Lenovo, Dell and HP, are already signalling to channel partners the need for hardware price increases of 15 to 20 per cent in the second half of the year. Paradoxically, the high cost of memory may stifle the adoption of Edge AI technology as PCs with the necessary minimum of 16 GB RAM become a luxury item. The partner channel must prepare for extended hardware replacement cycles and more difficult conversations with business customers, for whom 2026 will be a time to review IT budgets.
