HP, one of the global PC market leaders, has lowered its annual profit forecast, signalling increasing difficulties in a segment that until recently was seen as the beneficiary of a pandemic digital transformation. Reasons include inflationary pressures, uncertainty around tariffs and a still-unstable economic environment – factors that are increasingly cooling industry expectations.
HP’s new earnings guidance for fiscal 2025 (US$3.00-3.30 per share) is noticeably lower than previous expectations (US$3.45-3.75) and analyst consensus (US$3.49). Following the results announcement, the company’s share price dived 14% in after-hours trading – the biggest drop in months.
At first glance, it doesn’t look like a crisis – HP’s PC sales grew 7% year-on-year in the second quarter. However, lower profit (71 cents per share vs. 80 cents expected) and a drop in revenue in the printer division (-4%) show that margins remain under pressure.
These results are strongly influenced by the geopolitical factor. China’s import tariffs and associated costs are forcing HP to accelerate the relocation of production – to Vietnam, Mexico or the USA. This process requires investments that put a strain on results in the short term, although in the long term they can increase the company’s operational resilience.
From an industry-wide perspective, the signals coming from HP are not isolated. IDC data from May indicates that while the PC market has rebounded somewhat in the first half of 2025, further growth remains threatened by currency fluctuations, weakening consumer demand and regulatory instability, among other factors.
From the IT channel’s point of view, shrinking margins and rising costs in the supply chain may limit manufacturers’ discount aggressiveness and also affect the availability of specific hardware configurations. For integrators and resellers, this means a need for greater flexibility and a willingness to rotate offerings more quickly.
Conclusion? HP remains a strong player, but its results signal that the enthusiasm around the PC market resurgence may be premature. For the industry as a whole, it’s a reminder that transformation comes at a cost – especially when trade policy complicates supply chains faster than they can be rebuilt.
