The scenario we predicted in our article, shortly after the Russian drone attack on Polish airspace, is unfortunately being confirmed. According to the Ministry of Digitalisation and NASK analysts, a coordinated campaign by Russian and Belarusian services began almost simultaneously with the physical incident.
Its objectives are precisely defined: to divert responsibility to Ukraine, to undermine trust in the Polish military and to create public unrest.
The war for narrative
The attack in the infosphere is multi-channel, mainly via social media, where fake content can achieve viral reach in a very short time. Analysts have identified several main impact vectors that make up a coherent strategy.
Russian and Belarusian actors seek to portray Poland as an incompetent, aggressive and internally divisive state and their actions as an attempt to ‘objectively investigate the case’.
At the same time, the thesis of a Ukrainian ‘false flag’ operation is being promoted in the English-language online space, with the help of conspiracy circles and agents of influence.
Main lines of attack in the infosphere
NASK’s Disinformation Analysis Centre has mapped the key narratives that have flooded the Polish internet. Their combined reach is estimated at millions of impressions.
- Challenging the facts. The most popular narrative, which reached an audience of 1.7 million, questioned the incident itself in the village of Wyrki. It was argued that the damage to the house visible in the photos was the result of an earlier storm and that the whole incident was a hoax. Related plots suggested that the house had been hit by an American missile, which was intended to stir up anti-American sentiment and undermine the competence of the army.
- Creating panic. Materials designed to create fear proved equally dangerous. A claim about the alleged evacuation of Poles to Germany was spread, illustrated by a photograph of a crowded railway station. Another popular fake news, based on footage from Kharkiv, reported a drone explosion in Warsaw. At the same time, video footage was being circulated, allegedly showing Polish troops heading towards Belarus, which was in fact recorded in Germany and Italy.
- Discrediting the state. The third pillar of the operation was to build up an image of the ineptitude of the Polish authorities and military. Suggestions were made online that the Ministry of Defence had ignored warnings from Belarus because of its political dislike of Minsk. At the same time, the alleged shooting down of an undamaged drone was ridiculed and the use of advanced ammunition against cheap, ‘Styrofoam’ designs was criticised. The aim was to portray the Polish services’ response as inadequate and costly.
Defence in the digital space
Polish services continuously monitor and block fake content in cooperation with social media platforms. However, the drone incident demonstrates that hybrid warfare is not only being fought in the air, but more importantly in the minds of citizens. The scale and sophistication of the disinformation operation demonstrates that in an era of hybrid conflict, source verification and resistance to manipulation are becoming a key element of national security.
The Ministry of Digitalisation has published some guidance on the current situation:
- Everyone should exercise the utmost caution in relation to information appearing in public spaces – especially on social media.
- Verify sources of information each time and do not share material from unverified sources.
- It is important not to become emotional, especially when seeing publications with photos or video footage that may be faked or depict completely different situations than the descriptions suggest.
- The Polish security services provide verified and confirmed information to the public on an ongoing basis.
