The multi-year race for smartphone sales volume is approaching a turning point. According to the latest forecasts from analyst firm Counterpoint Research, Apple is on course to finally dethrone Samsung in 2025, taking the position of year-round market leader. Although the Korean giant continues to post increases, Cupertino’s momentum is proving to be unmatched by its competitors this year.
Analysts estimate that Apple will close the year with sales around 10 per cent higher than last year. In comparison, Samsung can expect growth of 4.6 per cent. Yang Wang of Counterpoint points out that a key driver of this acceleration is the market success of the iPhone 17 series, debuting in September. The device replacement cycle is not insignificant – consumers who bought electronics in large numbers at the start of the pandemic are just now deciding to upgrade their hardware, which naturally drives sales of the latest generations.
However, Apple’s strength is not solely based on new unit sales. Analysts point to the powerful ecosystem effect built by the secondary market. Between 2023 and mid-2025, as many as 358 million used iPhones went into secondary circulation. This is a strategic resource – these users represent a base that is likely to reach for new models with the bitten apple logo in the coming years. Through this mechanism, Counterpoint predicts that Apple can maintain its volume leadership until at least 2029.
The observed change in leadership also signals a broader transformation in the market structure itself. For years, Samsung has won with its broad portfolio and dominance of the budget segment. Now, however, market researchers are seeing a clear consumer shift towards more expensive premium devices that are used for longer. This trend, combined with the fact that manufacturers have stopped publishing accurate sales figures, means that the battle for dominance is shifting from quantity to value and customer loyalty – a field in which the US corporation has felt most secure for years.
