The start of 2026 brings a marked thaw in the mood of Polish employers, although the numbers may be misleading to an observer accustomed to the recruitment boom of a few years ago. The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, published today, indicates a Net Employment Outlook of +22% for the first quarter. This is a solid rebound – up 11 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 7 points year-on-year. However, beneath the surface of this optimism lies a fundamental shift in strategy: the end of the era of mass recruitment in favour of surgical precision in staff selection.
The data shows that the market is entering a phase that can be described as ‘talent density’ – a focus on the density of talent in an organisation. More than a third of companies (36%) are planning to recruit, but almost half (47%) intend to maintain their current workforce. Tomasz Walenczak, CEO of ManpowerGroup in Poland, points out a key nuance. Opening budgets in the new year does not mean a return to fighting for every candidate. Companies have the resources, but they invest them selectively, preceding decisions with detailed audits of competency gaps. Priority is being given to analytical, technological and operational skills that are expected to translate directly into competitive advantage and serving new markets.
What is significant for the technology industry and the partner channel is that the IT sector is exercising restraint. While automotive (+43%), finance (+35%) and trade and logistics (+32%) are announcing an aggressive scramble for staff, the IT technology and services area is recording a forecast of +13%. This may suggest that this sector, previously a growth leader, is now being hit hardest by automation and saturation, focusing on optimising processes rather than expanding teams.
The geographical map of the Polish labour market is interesting. The North (+31%) and the North-West (+30%) are emerging as new centres of recruitment activity, distancing the cautious South (+7%). This signals that investment, particularly in logistics and operations, is shifting towards ports and trade routes. Significantly, the drivers of employment are no longer just the giants. The greatest optimism is shown by medium-sized companies (employing between 50 and 249 people), where the forecast reaches +32%, which exceeds the plans of the largest corporations.
In the wider European context, Poland is consolidating its position as an operational safe haven. With a score better than the average, we are second only to the Netherlands and Ireland, while at the same time overtaking our regional neighbours. Operational stability and a still high quality workforce mean that, despite rising labour costs, advanced business processes continue to be relocated to the Vistula. We therefore begin 2026 not with a race for the number of jobs, but with a competition for the quality of competencies, where the winner will be the one who best defines its talent gaps.
