Recent reports from the frontline in Ukraine show how SpaceX is managing access to its Starlink network in contested zones and how armies are adapting to the sudden loss of satellite communications.
Russia’s deputy defence minister, Alexei Krivorukhko, has publicly acknowledged that Starlink terminals used by Russian units stopped working about a fortnight ago. This confirmation follows a series of announcements from the Ukrainian Ministry of Digital Transformation suggesting that mechanisms to block unauthorised devices have been effectively implemented. It’s a delicate credibility game for SpaceX – the company has to balance global commercial expansion with strict US Department of Defense requirements for export controls and allied support.
From a business and technological perspective, however, the most interesting aspect is the impact of the blockade on operational effectiveness. Although the Ukrainian side reports significant impediments to Russian logistics and command, Moscow maintains that the intensity of unmanned attacks has not decreased. This suggests a progressive diversification of Russian communications systems. While Starlink offers unrivalled bandwidth and low latency, modern long-range drones are increasingly using hybrid guidance systems that include indigenous satellites, inertial navigation and – most worryingly for Western observers – integrated systems based on artificial intelligence that make the machine independent of a fixed connection to an operator.
Relying on a single, external broadband provider is a risk that professional armies seek to avoid. The incident shows that ‘geofencing’ (blocking services in a specific area) is an effective political tool, but in a clash with a determined adversary it can only be a temporary obstacle.
