Global investment in artificial intelligence is having an increasingly significant impact on ASML’s results. The Dutch company manufactures machines used by the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturers, including TSMC and Samsung. Its market capitalisation currently stands at around $688 billion, and its shares have risen by around 60 per cent since the start of 2026.
Following the second-quarter results, the question is being asked with increasing frequency as to whether ASML could become the first European company to be valued at $1 trillion. This is no longer merely a theoretical scenario. Barclays, Susquehanna and Bernstein have set 12-month target prices for the shares above $2,600. Reaching such a level would represent an increase of nearly 50 per cent and bring the company closer to a $1 trillion valuation.
The foundation of ASML’s strong position is EUV technology. It enables the fabrication of extremely small components for integrated circuits used in the latest processors and memory chips. ASML remains the only company to supply such systems on an industrial scale. Developing this technology took over two decades and required investments exceeding €6 billion, which makes it difficult for direct competition to emerge quickly.
In the second quarter of 2026, ASML achieved €9.3 billion in revenue and €2.9 billion in net profit. The company also raised its full-year sales forecast to €43–45 billion. In response to rising order volumes, it plans to increase its EUV machine production capacity by around 30 per cent in 2027.
However, the path to a trillion dollars is by no means certain. ASML’s results depend on further spending by Google, Amazon and other data centre operators. Other risks include export restrictions relating to China, supply chain issues and the possibility of delays in the expansion of customers’ factories. China is expected to account for around 20 per cent of the company’s sales in 2026.
ASML possesses unique technology and is benefiting from the AI boom, but its high valuation assumes that rapid growth will continue. A trillion dollars is a realistic scenario, not a guaranteed outcome.
