The Polish labour market is sending mixed signals. In July, the average wage in the enterprise sector rose by 6.8 per cent year-on-year, to 9,509.02 zlotys gross. This is higher than market expectations, which had forecast a rise of 6.2 per cent. At the same time, average employment fell by 0.8 per cent year-on-year, although it increased by 0.1 per cent compared with June.
Wage growth remains significantly faster than price growth. Consumer inflation stood at 3.0 per cent year-on-year in July, meaning that the purchasing power of wages continues to rise. This may support consumption, particularly as the Polish economy remains in a growth phase. GDP in the second quarter rose by 3.8 per cent year-on-year in real terms.
For businesses, however, the picture is less clear-cut. Rising wages coupled with a fall in the number of jobs suggest caution regarding hiring and pressure to improve productivity. In June, employment in the private sector was already 0.9 per cent lower than a year earlier, so the July figures are part of a longer-term trend.
If this pattern continues in the coming months, firms may focus more heavily on automation, digitalisation and the use of AI to reduce labour costs. From an economic perspective, the challenge will be to sustain growth in consumption without reigniting inflationary pressures, particularly in the services sector, where prices rose by 5.5 per cent year-on-year in July.
