InPost continues to rapidly expand its operations, but weaker profitability and a slower pace of growth in parcel volumes have prompted the group to revise its forecasts for 2026 downwards.
In the second quarter, InPost’s revenue rose by 18 per cent year-on-year to PLN 4.18 billion, whilst adjusted EBITDA increased by 4.4 per cent to PLN 1.04 billion, slightly above analysts’ expectations. Net profit, however, fell by 30 per cent to PLN 93 million, whilst the EBITDA margin fell to 25 per cent from 28.3 per cent a year earlier.
The differences between markets are growing. In the eurozone, adjusted EBITDA rose by almost 40 per cent, supported by the growing share of deliveries to parcel lockers. In the UK and Ireland, earnings fell by around 40 per cent, where the group continues to bear the costs of restructuring its operations following the acquisition of Yodel. At the same time, InPost points to weaker growth in shipments from international marketplaces following changes to EU customs duties.
The company now expects adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026 to fall by a mid-single-digit percentage, rather than stabilising as previously forecast. Capital expenditure is expected to amount to approximately PLN 2.1 billion instead of PLN 2.4 billion. The network expansion plan has been scaled back to around 19,000 new parcel lockers, of which 11,000 are to be deployed in the eurozone.
The cut in CAPEX does not signify a retreat from European expansion, but rather greater discipline in its financing. With financial leverage expected to exceed 2.2x by the end of 2025, the pace at which new equipment and acquired assets begin to generate cash is becoming increasingly important. This is particularly significant during the ongoing tender offer for InPost shares led by a consortium involving Advent and FedEx.
